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近年来，各种自然与人为的突发事件在全世界特别是在人口众多且处于经济和社会转型期的中国频繁发生，这些事件无不严重威胁着人类安全和社会稳定，给我国的经济发展带来重大损失。在这种情况下，研究突发事件下的个体行为，分析并归纳影响个体恐惧感知的因素，对于加强政府及个体对突发事件的应对管理，减少经济损失具有重要意义。 本论文首先梳理了突发事件下个体行为影响因素、个体风险感知的相关知识；其次，提出并建立个体灾难恐惧感知定量分析的模型，对影响个体恐惧感知的因素加以总结归纳，分析引起个体恐惧感知的来源；然后，建立起基于 logit 建模的个体灾难恐惧感知模型；最后以 H1N1 为例，设计实验，运用回归分析法得出影响个体恐惧感知的相关性因素，为个体及政府更好地应对突发事件提供理论支持。 关键词 突发事件、个体行为、恐惧感知、回归分析8336
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Title Inpidual behavioral and cognitive research in the emergency
Abstract
In recent years, a variety of natural and man-made emergencies in the world, especially
the frequent occurrence in a large population in the economic and social transformation
of China, these events are all serious threats to human security and social stability to
the country's economic development with to significant losses. In this case, to study the
inpidual behavior under emergencies, analyzed and summarized the factors that
influence inpidual perception of fear, of great significance for strengthening the
government and inpidual emergency response management, and reduce economic
losses.
This paper first combed the impact factors of inpidual behavior in emergencies,
knowledge of inpidual risk perception; proposed and to establish the model of
quantitative analysis of inpidual disaster fear perception, be summarized factors
affecting inpidual perception of fear, analyze the cause of inpidual fear perception
of the source; then, to establish inpidual disaster fear perception model based on logit
modeling; to H1N1, for example, design experiments, the use of regression analysis
method to get the perception of inpidual fear factors, inpiduals and government to
better provide theoretical support to respond to emergencies.
Keywords Emergencies, Inpidual behavior, Fear perception, Regression analysis
目 次
1 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景 . 1
1.2 研究意义 . 2
1.3 本文的组织结构 . 2
2 文献综述 3
2.1 突发事件 . 4
2.2 个体行为决策 . 4
2.2.1 个体行为决策的研究现状 4
2.2.2 个体行为决策特征 5
2.2.3 个体行为决策制约因素 6
2.2.4 个体行为决策的研究方法 7
3 突发事件下个体风险感知与行为研究 9
3.1 个体对风险的感知 . 9
3.1.1 国内外研究现状 9
3.1.2 个体对风险的感知模型. 11
3.2 个体灾难恐惧感知概念模型 11
3.2.1 影响个体风险感知的概念模型. 12
3.2.2 突发事件特征影响因素. 13
3.2.3 突发事件与个体的关系. 15