摘要供应链风险是企业经常面对且不可回避的问题,近十年来受到了国内外学者的重视。供应链风险一般分为内部运作风险和中断风险，本文研究的供应链风险主要是指交货提前期的不确定性导致的内部运作风险。63671

 人工供应链是利用计算机技术构造的一个虚拟的并且尽可能逼近现实的供应链系统。本文构建了一个人工供应链模型，运用所设计的算例，通过改变供应商的交货提前期，分析了不同的交货提前期对自身企业、同行竞争企业以及下游企业供应风险的影响。研究结果显示：在不考虑成本因素的情况下，企业适当延长交货提前期有利于降低自身企业和下游企业的供应风险，同时导致了同行竞争企业的供应风险增大。

毕业论文关键词：人工供应链模型，供应链风险，交货提前期

毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要

Title    Analysis of delivery lead time on the impact of supply risk based on artificial supply chain                       

Abstract

Supply chain risk is the problem that enterprise often faced with and cannot be avoided. Over the past decade, supply chain risk has been the importance of domestic and foreign scholars. Supply chain risk is generally pided into internal operational risk and the risk of disruption. In this paper, supply chain risk mainly refers to the delivery lead time of uncertainty resulting from internal operational risk. 

Artificial supply chain is a virtual reality as possible approaching a supply chain system that using computer technology to structure. We build an artificial supply chain model, using the example of the design by changing supplier delivery lead time to analyze a different delivery lead time for their own businesses, as well as peer competitors and downstream enterprise’ supply risk. The results showed that: under the case of not considering the cost factor, an appropriate extension of the delivery lead time of an enterprise can help reduce their own and downstream enterprises' supply risk, and at the same time leads to the increases of their peer competitors' supply risk . 

Key Words: Artificial supply chain model, Supply chain risk,Delivery lead time

目次

1 绪论 1

1.1研究背景和意义 1

1.2国内外研究综述 2

1.3研究目标和内容 3

2 人工供应链以及相关理论 5

2.1人工供应链的定义 5

2.1.1供应链网络中角色的定义 5

2.1.2 人工供应链模型的构建 6

2.2供应链风险 7

2.2.1供应链风险的类型 7

2.2.2供应链风险的特点 10

2.3供应链风险管理 11

3 交货提前期对供应链风险的影响分析 14

3.1 问题的背景 14

3.2模型描述 14

3.3供应链风险的度量 15

4 算例设计与数值分析 17

4.1 前提假设 17

4.2 算例设计 18

4.3 结果分析 21

5 结论 23

致谢