摘要随着社会经济的发展，供应链逐渐形成了复杂的网络，其运行环境的复杂使得其遭受风险的可能性大大增加。良好的供应链风险管理可以有效的避免或降低企业可能遭受的供应链风险问题，从而保证企业所在的供应链运行稳定，在竞争中处于优势地位。因此，供应链风险管理已经成为了现代企业一项不可或缺的管理活动。66170

本文通过分析研究供应链风险管理的重要性以及必要性，研究总结了国内外与供应链风险管理、供应链风险预警决策相关的研究成果，以供应链风险管理理论为中心，详细论述研究了有关供应链的风险识别、风险评价和风险应对各环节。在供应链风险评价环节中建立了评价指标体系，利用层次分析法分析得出了相关

指标的权重大小。在供应链风险应对环节，分析研究了利用供应链风险预警决策机制来应对供应链风险的相关内容，通过确定预警决策指标体系，构建了相应的预警决策机制，将预警决策机制运用供应链风险管理之中。

毕业论文关键词  供应链风险 供应链风险识别 预警模型 评价指标体系 层次分析法

毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要

Title    Supply chain risk warning and diagnostic studies                  

Abstract

With the economic developing, the supply chain has gradually formed extremely complex network. In this condition of its complex operating environment，the possibility of which the supply chain suffering some risks is greatly increasing. Good supply chain risk management can prevent or reduce the supply chain risks effectively. And these activities can ensure the supply chain's operation in stable, and the result can make the enterprise in the advantage position in the competition. So，supply chain risk management has become an indispensable management activity in the modern enterprises. 

This paper analyzes the importance and necessity of supply chain risk management. Research and sum up the research results about supply chain risk management，early-warning and decision-making of supply chain risk，from domestic and international. Description and study in detail of the supply chain risk identification，risk assessment and risk response，which were all based on the supply chain risk management's theory. Construction the evaluation indicator system in the part of supply chain's risk assessment，and use the AHP to analysis the index's weight. In the part of supply chain's risk response，analyze the way of using early-warning and decision-making mechanism to deal with supply chain risks. Established the indicator system of early-warning and decision-making mechanism，constructed the early-warning and decision-making mechanism，finally use the mechanism into the supply chain risk management.

Keywords  supply chain risk  supply chain risk identification  evaluation indicator system  warning model  AHP

目   次

1 引言 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 供应链风险的研究现状 1

1.3 供应链风险现有研究不足 2

1.4论文研究内容 3

2 供应链风险管理概况 4

2.1 供应链管理理论 4

2.2供应链风险管理理论