摘要：随着全球气候变化，极端气温事件发生的频率不断增加，对人们的生产生活产生了重大影响。本文基于淮河流域33个气象站点1960-2014年逐日气温数据，利用Mann-Kendall检验以及克里金插值分析了极端气温时空变化规律。结果表明：1）冷极值呈显著下降趋势，其中霜冻日数（FD0）和冷夜日数（TN10p）变化最为明显，趋势分别为-0。421 d/a和-0。175 d/a；2）暖极值呈波动上升趋势，其中热夜日数（TR20）、暖夜日数（TN90p）变化最为显著，趋势分别为0。278d/a和0。213d/a；3）日较差总体呈显著下降趋势，这与最低气温的增加趋势比最高气温大有关；4）气温极值变化趋势不存在高程相依性，且趋势介于我国南北方流域之间，表现出很好的南北过渡带特色。该研究对淮河流域水资源可持续发展及南水北调工程建设、防灾减灾都具有重要意义。79430

毕业论文关键词：极端气温，Mann-Kendall检验，普通克里金插值，淮河流域

Abstract: The frequency of extreme temperature events is increasing under the background of climate change, which leads to a significant impact on production and livelihood。 Based on daily temperature data by the China Meteorological Administration at 33 meteorological stations in the Huaihe River Basin from 1960 to 2014, variation characteristics and space distribution of extreme temperature have been analyzed using Mann Kendall test and Kriging interpolation。 The results are as follows: 1) the cold indices (FD0, ID0, TN10p, TX10p and CSDI) show significantly decreasing trends; FD0 and TN10p changes most significantly, decreasing by -0。421 and -0。175 days per year。 The warm indices (TN90p, TX90p, SU25, TR20 and WSDI) have increasing trends; TN90p and TR20 changes most significantly, increasing by 0。278 and 0。213 days per year。2) Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) Shows a significantly downward trend because of the minimum temperature increases larger than the maximum temperature。3) No significant relationship are observed between temperature extremes and height。 4）The variation trends of temperature extremes in Huaihe basin are between the Yellow River Valley and the Pearl River, which show good characteristics of the North-South transition zone。 This study has important significance to the sustainable development of water resources in Huaihe River Basin, the construction of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project and the disaster prevention and reduction。

Keywords: Extreme temperature, Mann-Kendall test, ordinary Kriging interpolation, Huaihe Basin

目   录

1  前言 1

2  研究区概况 1

3  研究数据与研究方法 2

3。1  研究数据 2

3。2  研究方法 4

3。2。1  Mann-Kendall检验 4

3。2。2  克里金插值 5

4  结果分析 6

4。1  冷极值 6

4。1。1  年际变化特征 6

4。1。2  空间分布变化 7

4。2  暖极值 8

4。2。1  年际变化特征 8

4。2。2  空间分布变化 9

4。3  日较差年际与空间分布变化特征 11

4。4  与高程变化的联系及与其它地区比较