摘要：国际原油市场极为复杂，影响国际原油价格的因素极多且不易控制。所以国际原油价格一直表现出不规律震荡的状态。本文仅考虑美国联邦基金利率和WTI国际原油价格之间的关系，基于单因素方差分析法来探究不同的利率水平对WTI国际原油价格的冲击。本文分为五部分，第一部分具体介绍了国际原油市场的历史与国内外学者在这一领域研究所涉及的主要统计方法-时间序列分析法。第二部分主要介绍了本文所用的统计方法-单因素方差分析。详细讲述了单因素方差分析的理论同时介绍了多重比较法中的最小显著差异法以及检验单因素方差分析基本假定所需要的Levene方差齐性检验法和QQ图。第三部分讲述了WTI国际原油价格的演进过程、以及影响国际原油价格的因素，并且逐一做了详细的分析。第四部分是实证分析，首先说明了数据的选取，然后建立模型，最后利用SPSS软件求解并说明含义。第五部分探究不同水平的美国联邦基金利率对WTI国际原油价格的影响，然后结合经济学知识和经典案例得出美联储加息可能导致国际油价进一步下跌的结论，最后指出了模型的缺陷以及未来要改进的地方。61977

毕业论文关键词： 美国联邦基金利率；WTI原油价格；单因素方差分析；SPSS

The implication of different America federal funds rate levels on WTI crude oil price

Abstract: The international crude oil market is very complex, and the factors，influencing international crude oil prices,  are various and out of manual control. There has been a wild fluctuation in the market of crude oil. This paper simplifies the model, and only considers the relationship between federal funds rate and the WTI international crude oil price. The paper uses ANOVA to indicate different rates level's influence to WTI international crude oil price. The paper mainly contains five parts. The first part introduces the history of international crude oil market and the main methods which some scholars employed at home and abroad. The second part introduces the ANOVA in details, in addition, LSE ,LEVENE and QQ test also involved. The third part illustrates about the development of the international crude oil price as well as the factors, affecting the international price of crude oil, at length. Furthermore, we make a empirically analyses in the fourth part, including data gathering, modeling and utilizing  SPSS software to solve and explain the result. Finally, we explore the federal funds rate's effects on WTI international crude oil price among the different rate levels. In combination with the economic discipline and classic case, we conclude that the decision of raising interest rates may contribute to a another decline of international crude oil price.     Finally，we note the flaw which should be improved.

Keywords: Federal funds rate; WTI crude oil price; ANOVA; SPSS

目录

1 绪论 1

1.1 选题背景和研究意义 1

1.2 国内外研究现状与发展趋势 1

1.3 研究内容 2

1.4 本文结构 2

2 统计方法综述 4

2.1 单因素方差分析 4

2.1.1 数据结构 4

2.1.2