摘要自金融危机、欧债危机爆发以来，美元市场一直处于一种风险释放状态。本文利用黄金盎司量衡量美元和欧元的价值，首先将两个货币的市场风险以及分别影响两个市场风险的因素波动（利率波动、物价指标波动、原油价格波动、股指波动、经常账户波动以及失业率波动）进行比较；接着深入分析上述因素波动对美元市场、欧元市场风险的影响，分析该影响的性质、程度以及显著性；最后通过近期美联储的季度资产负债表分析美元市场风险的状态。本文认为，在样本期间内，基于以黄金为参照的视角，美元的市场风险大于欧元的市场风险，美元的市场风险处于一种积累且周期性缓慢释放的状态。67147

毕业论文关键字  黄金盎司量  美元市场风险  波动  比较

毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要

Title    Analysis and comparison of US dollar market risk: Based on taking gold as a reference                     

Abstract

US dollar market has been releasing risk since the financial crisis and the European debt crisis. Firstly, utilizing ounces of gold to evaluate the value of US dollar and euro, this paper compares between two currency   market risks and between volatility of factors (interest rate, commodity price index, crude oil price, stock index, current account and unemployment rate) which affect two currency markets respectively. Then, this paper analyses how the volatility of those factors influences two currency market risks, and analyses the character, extent and significance of these impacts. Finally the paper analyses the status of US dollar market risk through recently fiscal report of Federal Reserve. Based on taking gold as a reference, the conclusion is that during the sample period, the risk of US dollar market was bigger than that of euro market, and the risk of US dollar market is accumulating and slowly releasing in a cycle. 

Keywords  ounces of gold  US dollar market risk  volatility  comparison

目   次

1 引言 1

1.1 研究背景 1

1.2 文献综述 1

1.3 研究创新 4

1.4 研究不足 4

2 美元市场的风险比较——以欧元的市场风险为比较对象 6

2.1 美元与欧元的黄金价格波动率比较 6

2.2 各影响因素的波动比较 7

3 美元的市场风险分析——以欧元市场的风险为比较对象 12

3.1 实证分析美国联邦基金利率波动对美元黄金价波动的影响 17

3.2 实证分析美国通货膨胀率波动对美元黄金价波动的影响 19

3.3 实证分析美国WTI原油价格波动对美元黄金价波动的影响 22

3.4 实证分析美国道琼斯工业平均指数的波动对美元黄金价波动的影响 26

3.5 实证分析美国经常账户的波动对美元黄金价波动的影响 29

3.6 实证分析美国失业率的波动对美元黄金价波动的影响 31

3.7 欧元的市场风险分析 34

3.8 小结 36

4 美元的市场风险状态 39