摘要随着中国经济的迅速发展、产业结构的不断调整以及战略储备的需要,中国对石油的需求迅速增长,但同时受国内石油生产能力的制约,中国石油供需缺口越来越大,石油进口量逐年增加。2003年成为世界第二大石油进口国和消费国。2015年中国赶超美国成为世界第一大石油消费国和进口国。在石油贸易市场上“大市场”地位,却并未为中国赢得相应石油定价权,反而让中国承担了石油价格剧烈波动所导致的巨大经济损失。72798
本文基于买卖双方的双向视角进行深入分析,采用修正和扩展后的两国局部均衡Song-Marchant-Reed(2007)模型,采用剩余需求弹性及剩余供给弹性分别作为卖方国际市场势力跟买方国际市场势力的测算指标,对中国在石油进口市场上的势力大小进行测度。测算结果表明中国在中沙石油贸易中市场势力小于沙特。本文又进一步分析市场势力弱小的原因及其影响因素,分析得出:石油价格机制、市场化程度、来源地集中程度、可替代能源的获得程度、石油期货市场完善程度、对世界石油产业链控制程度是导致中国石油进口贸易买方国际市场势力缺失的主要原因。
在分析市场势力缺失以及其影响因素的基础上,结合中国国情,文章最后提出相应的政策建议,寻找中国石油进口市场势力提升的途径,找出提升中国石油进口市场势力的具体方法,比如实现石油进口来源国和渠道多元化,降低石油进口市场集中度,分散石油进口来源地的风险、加深市场化程度、建立石油金融市场、拓展海外投资加强国际合作等。
Abstract:With the needs of the rapid development of Chinese economy, and constantly adjust the industrial structure and strategic reserves, Chinese demand for oil is growing rapidly, but at the same time that domestic oil production capacity constraints, China's oil supply and demand gap is growing, oil imports increased year increase。 In 2003 to become the world's second largest oil importer and consumer。 2015 China overtake the US as the world's largest oil consumer and importer。 In the oil trade market "big market" status, but not for the Chinese to win the corresponding oil pricing, but let China undertook enormous economic losses of oil price volatility caused。
In this paper, in-depth analysis based on bidirectional perspective of buyers and sellers, both local and extended by the modified balance Song-Marchant-Reed (2007) model, the remaining residual elasticity of demand and supply elasticity, respectively, as sellers international market forces with international buyer market power estimates indicators, China's oil imports in the size of the forces of the market will be measure。 Calculation results show that the Chinese market power in the oil trade in the sand less than Saudi Arabia。 This paper further analyze the reasons for the weak market power and its influencing factors analysis reveals: oil price mechanism, market-oriented, centralized source level, alternative obtain the degree, the oil futures market to improve the degree of energy for the world oil industry chain control leading to the degree of China's oil imports buyer market power is missing the main reason。
Based on the analysis of market power and their lack of influence factors, combined with China's national conditions, the article concludes with policy suggestions, to find ways to enhance the market power of China's oil imports, and to identify specific ways to boost China's oil import market forces, such as the realization of oil persify import sources and channels of the country, to reduce oil import market concentration, the risks of oil import source dispersion, deepen market-oriented, the establishment of financial oil markets, expand overseas investment to strengthen international cooperation。