摘要目前我国经济处于下行阶段，房地产市场不稳定，政策变化不定，作为我国国民经济的支柱性产业，房地产开发投资面临更大的风险。

研究内容：本文根据生命周期理论，将房地产开发投资分为五个阶段，分别为立项决策阶段、前期准备阶段、建设施工阶段、租售阶段以及售后服务阶段。对每个阶段可能出现的风险因素进行分析，并根据实际情况建立房地产开发投资风险评价指标体系。通过上网及实地走访调查徐州市阿尔卡迪亚小区，专家打分法获取数据，计算得出该项目风险度属于风险中等，并从风险回避、风险转移和风险分散三个角度提出风险规避措施。73427

研究目的：通过对每个阶段的风险因素分析，建立适合房地产开发投资特点的风险评价模型，并通过实例计算进行证明该模型的有效性，为房地产开发投资者提供参考。

研究方法：本文运用层次分析法确定风险评价体系的权重，运用模糊综合分析法对房地产开发投资风险进行有效的评价，运用Matlab编程计算各指标层判断矩阵的特征向量与特征值，得出各指标权重，并通过矩阵运算得到项目的风险度。

该论文有图3幅，表5个，参考文献25篇。

毕业论文关键字：房地产开发投资  风险评价  模糊综合分析法  层次分析法

The Development of Real Estate Investment Risk Assessment Research——Taking Arcadia Project in Xuzhou as An Example

Abstract At present, China's economy is in new normal, the real estate market is unsteady, and the policy is fulling of change。As one of the most important industry of chinese economy, real estate development investment has faced higher risks。

Contents:Based on the theory of life cycle, the development of real estate investment is pided into five stages:decision-making stage, preparation stage, construction stage, rental and selling stage and after-sales service stage。Analyzing the possible factors of each satge,and establish the risk evaluation index system according to the actual situation。Getting information by surfing the Internet and interviewing the Arcadia project,and getting the data from expert scoring。 Due to the data calculating the project risk degree,and the result is middle risk。 Finally, giving the advice of avoiding the risk form the angles of risk transfer,risk dispersing and risk aversion。 

Purpose:Through analyzing the risk factors for each stage, set up the suitable  real estate investment risk evaluation model,and to prove the validity of the model by practical calculation。 In order to provide reference for development of real estate investors。

Methods: this paper use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of risk evaluation system。And use the fuzzy comprehensive analysis method for effective evaluation on the development of real estate investment risk。 Using the Matlab programming to caculate the characteristic vector of judgment matrix and characteristic value, so we can get the index weight。 Finally, project risk degree is obtained by matrix operations。

The paper has a figure 3, table 5, 25 references。

Key  Words: Real estate development investment  Risk assessment  Fuzzy comprehensive analysis method  AHP

目  录

摘要 I

Abstract II

目录 IV

图清单 VI

表清单 VI

变量注释表 VII

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