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摘要随着我国经济飞速增长，我国成为了出口大国，同时也成为了能耗大国。其中建筑能耗占有很大的比重。人民生活质量日益提高，并且对居住环境舒适程度的要求也越来越苛刻。所以开展研究建筑能耗的影响因素，并建立建筑能耗模型预测变得越来越重要，这将有利于相关部门制定建筑能耗的法律和规定。本文首先对国内外建筑能耗模型的研究方法进行综述，参考了相关论文的某城市居民建筑能耗数据，此次参考的数据涉及了有关建筑能耗的很多因素，如：建筑老化程度、建筑结构及特点、人口特点、居民节能意识、夏季降温的设备和方法等20多种因素。然后根据偏相关分析筛选出4个变量。利用这四个影响因素建立基于相关分析的线性回归预测模型，带入预测数据算出结果并且它与实际情况有较高的符合度。最终结合某市的实情制定出合适的降低建筑能耗的解决方案，激励和引导市民共同建设低碳城市。
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关键词 建筑能耗 预测模型 建筑特点 节能意识
毕业论文设计说明书外文摘要
Title Urban residential building energy consumption influencing factors and prediction model
Abstract
With economy rapidly growing, China has become an export power but also an energy-consuming giant. Building energy accounts for a very big portion in the energy consumption pattern. As people live a better life, they become more and more critical to their living environment. Therefore, to start a research on factors that influence building energy consumption and to build a building energy consumption model turn out to be urgent. The article first summarizes the research tools regarding building energy consumption model, both at home and abroad. The reference data range over about twenty factors influencing building energy consumption. Then we figure out the basic linear relationship between the factors and annual energy consumption based on data. And the seven factors that affect building energy consumption most are cooling mechanisms of summer equipment. Then by partial correlative analysis we filter out our four independent variances. With these four, we build a linear regression model based on correlative analysis. And after plugging in the predicted variance, a result we get turns out to accords well with the real situation. Combining our theory with the real case of city, we finally come up with a solution to lower building energy consumption and to encourage our citizens to together build an eco-friendly city.
Keywords Building energy consumption prediction model Influence factor solution
目 次
1绪论 1
1.1研究背景及意义 1
1.2国内外研究现状 2
1.3 本文主要研究内容 3
2 研究方法和技术路线 5
2.1 研究方法与路线 5
2.2 本章小结 7
3建筑能耗研究方法与原理 9
3.1相关性分析和偏相关性概念 9
3.2 城市建筑能耗相关性分析 10
3.3 城市建筑偏相关性 19
3.4本章小结 23
4 居住建筑能耗建模与分析 24
4.1最小二乘法模型 24
4.2 对城市居住建筑能耗模型建立 26
4.2.1 建模过程与分析 26
4.3居民建筑能耗模型预测 28
4.4 本章小结 29
5 城市居民建筑能耗节能规划与措施 30
5.1建立合理科学的建筑节能政策 30
5.2 本章小结 31
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