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徐州市极端低温变化与Nino3.4区海水表面温度（SST）遥相关研究[摘要]：极端低温的出现对徐州市对某地区的农业，工业，交通以及群众的生活都有极大不利影响，找到徐州市极端低温与Nino3.4区海水表面温度的关系，并进行预测以减少极端低温对徐州市的不利影响。本文在1960-2004年间徐州市和Nino3.4区海水表面温度，应用极端值选取法，距平化处理，线性相关分析以及SPSS软件分析，研究45年间徐州市极端低温与Nino3.4区海水表面温度的变化关系。本文得出，徐州市极端低温天数和最小值变化较大，数值差异较大，而各年平均极端低温相差不大。徐州市极端低温天数与极端低温最小值有明显的正相关。Nino3.4区海水表面温度45年间震荡上升。徐州市极端低温与Nino3.4区海水表面温度春在一定的相关性。34680
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[毕业论文关键词]：徐州市；NIino3.4区海水表面温度；极端低温；相关性
The Correlation between the Extreme Low Temperature in Xuzhou and Sea Surface Temperature in Nino3.4 Area
Abstract : The appearance of extreme low temperature has a great adverse impact on agriculture，industry， traffic and people's life in Xuzhou. We need to find the relation between extreme low temperature in Xuzhou and sea surface temperature in Nino 3.4 area， and forecast in order to reduce the negative impact of the extreme low temperature. In this thesis，the relation between extreme low temperature in Xuzhou and the sea surface temperature in Nino 3.4 area from 1960 to 2004 was analyzed， based on the method of extreme value， demeaning， linear correlation analysis and SPSS software analysis. We can conclude from this thesis that Xuzhou’s extreme low temperature day is more , the change of minimum value at low temperature and the numerical difference are bigger while the average annual extreme low temperature is not much different. What’s more， in Xuzhou， the extreme low temperature days have a significant positive correlation with extreme minimum value at low temperature. Sea surface temperature in Nino 3.4 area shock rise from 1960 to 2004. Obviously， there appeared a certain correlation between the extreme low temperature in Xuzhou and sea surface temperature in Nino 3.4 area.
Key Words： Xuzhou；Nino3.4 SST; extreme low temperature; correlation
目录
1引言 5
1.1研究背景和意义 5
1.2研究现状 5
1.3论文主要研究内容及思路 6
2.数据与方法 6
2.1数据说明 7
2.2方法介绍 7
2.2.1极端值选取 7
2.2.2极端低温的距平化处理 7
2.2.3线性相关分析 8
3.徐州极端低温特征与规律 8
3.1徐州极端低温特征规律 8
3.1.1徐州市极端低温天数各年分布变化分析 8
3.1.2徐州市各年极端低温平均值年际变化分析 9
3.1.3徐州市各年极端低温最小值年际变化分析 10
3.1.4徐州市各年极端低温天数与各年极端低温最小值相关性分析 10
4.Nino3.4区海水表面温度特征与规律 11
4.1 1960-2004年间533月Nino3.4区平均海水表面温度变化分析 11
4.2 1960-2004年Nino3.4区平均海水表面温度变化分析 11
4.3 1960-2004年Nino3.4区平均海水表面温度异常值变化分析 12
5.徐州极端低温与Nino3.4区海水表面温度的相关性 13
5.1徐州市极端低温天数（1960-2004）与Nino3.4区海水表面温度遥相关
析.13