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摘要：要从根本上解决农民与政府之间的征地冲突，更好地统筹工业化、城市化与农民利益，了解农民征地意愿及影响因素是政策设计的重要需求。本文从个人和家庭因素、政策与政府管理因素、地区经济社会因素对农民土地征收意愿影响三个方面出发，通过对江苏省淮安市实地调研，采用二元Logistic回归模型对农民征地意愿的影响因素进行分析。研究发现，户主受教育水平、土地征收政策的认知、征地补偿合理性、征地对生活水平的影响、外界新闻媒体对征地意愿的影响对农民征地意愿有正面影响，户主年龄、家庭收入水平、周围村庄土地征收情况对农民征地意愿有负面影响。要提高农民土地征收意愿，应加大土地征收政策宣传力度，采用更合理、更多元的补偿方式，建立相应的社会保障机制，多方面促进农民再就业和创业，给予农民更多的发声渠道。25963
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毕业论文关键词：土地征收；农民意愿；影响因素；logistic模型
Research on the Affecting Factors of Peasants’Land Expropriation Willingness Based on Logistic Model
Abstract：In order to solve the conflicts of land expropriation between peasants and government, and balance the country’s industrialization, urbanization and peasants’ benefits, the government need to know the peasants’ land expropriation willingness. Thus, many scholars made researches about this issue. In this paper, peasants’ land expropriation willingness will be analyzed from three aspects: inpidual and family factors, policies and government administrations factors, regional economic and social factors, and based on field investigation in Huai'an, Jiangsu, and by using the binary logistic regression model, we discovered the top eight factors affecting farmers’ land acquisition willingness are the education level of peasants, the level of family income, the impact of the surrounding village land expropriation on land requisition, the peasants’ cognition of land expropriation policy, the rationality of land expropriation compensation, the age of peasants ,the peasants’ living standards after the land expropriation and the news media. The first five variables have positive impacts on the peasants’ land expropriation willingness, while the other variables have negative impacts. In order to carry out land expropriation smoothly, the local government should continue to popularize the land expropriation policy in rural areas, make the compensation method more reasonable, establish the corresponding social guarantee mechanism, promote the reemployment and Entrepreneurship of farmers in various ways, so that farmers have the ability to make a living, and establish a new media platform, so that the peasants can have their voice in public.
Key words: land expropriation；peasants’ willingness；influencing factors；Logistic model
目 录
摘要1
关键词1
Abstract1
Key words1
引言（或绪论）2
一、国内外研究概况2
（一）土地征用制度存在问题2
（二）关于征地补偿政策2
（三）失地对农民的影响3
（四）基于实证研究的失地农民征地意愿3
二、农民征地意愿调查与初步分析4
（一）样本分布及数据初步分析4
（二）征地意愿4
1．征地意愿总体意愿分布4
2．征地意愿原因分布4
三、基于模型的征地意愿分析5
（一）变量选择与模型构建5
（二）变量描述及赋值5
1．预期作用方向分析6
（三）结果分析6
四、研究结论与政策含义8
致谢9
参考文献9
图1农民征地前后收入来源4
表1被调查农民基本信息3
表2淮安市各区征地意愿分布4
表3农民征地意愿原因分布5
表4变量的解释和说明6
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