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摘要：近年来，我国住宅房地产业不断完善与发展，开发商从中可获取的利润已日趋减少。而商业地产由于其兴起的时间较短，利润空间较大，正成为我国房地产开发商的一个新的投资热点。
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但是房地产业具有投资数额大、回收周期长、风险高等特点，为了规避风险、扩大收益，对商业地产的投资就必须重视风险分析和投资决策的优化。伴随我国宏观经济的整体迅速增长，商业地产开发一直保持了比较高的增长速度。预计在限购令退出之前，商业地产的政策利好因素仍将存在，商业地产是房地产转型和突破的一个重要方向。本论文从经济、市场、开发建设和其他风险这四个方面分析了商业地产风险对于投资决策的影响和意义，并通过BP神经网络对案例进行了实证分析。研究表明：商业地产投资风险分析能有效化解、减轻、控制风险使其达到投资者预期目标。7366
关键词： 商业地产；商业地产投资风险分析；商业地产投资决策
The Studies of Countermeasures and Decision-Making of Commercial Real Estates Projects on the Basis of Risk Analysis
Abstract: In recent years, residential real estate industry in china has been constantly improved and developed. The profit of the developers is shrinking day by day. Meanwhile, the commercial real estate due to the shorter history and lager profit margins, is becoming a new hot spot for investment in China's real estate developers.
However, products and investments of the commercial real estate have their peculiarity: the huge investment, the long payback period and the compound risks, etc. In order to lower the level of risk and enlarge the profit, the investors must emphasize the risk analysis and the optimization of investment decision. With the rapid development of macro-economy in our country, commercial real estate development has maintained a relatively high growth rate. It is estimated that the favorable policies of the commercial real estate will continue to exist before the purchase limit order exits. Commercial real estate is an important direction of real estate transformation and breakthrough. These four aspects from the economy, market, development and construction and other risk analysis and the significance of the commercial real estate risk for investment decision-making, and the empirical analysis to the case by BP neural network. Research shows that: commercial real estate investment risk analysis can effectively solve, mitigate, control the risk so as to help investors achieve their expecting target.
Key words: commercial real estates; risk analysis of commercial real estate investment; decision-making of real estate projects
目 录
1 绪论 1
1.1 研究背景与意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意义 2
1.2 研究理论基础 2
1.3 研究方法与内容 3
2 相关理论基础概念 5
2.1 商业地产项目相关研究 5
2.1.1 商业地产项目概述 5
2.1.2 商业地产主要理论 6
2.2 项目风险分析相关研究 7
2.2.1 风险的定义与特征 7
2.2.2 风险分析的必要性 9
2.3 BP神经网络理论概念 9
3 商业地产的发展与现状 11
3.1 商业地产的发展进程 11
3.2 商业地产的现状及特点 12
4 商业地产的风险与影响因素 16
4.1 商业地产面临的风险 16
4.2 商业地产风险影响因素 17