摘要随着中国经济从高速发展转为中高速发展，经济的转型升级对经济发展的水平和质量提出了更高的要求。长期以来，中国经济的高增长是以能源的高消耗为代价的，工业作为国民经济的主体，承担节能降耗主要任务责无旁贷，实现工业节能，制造业部门是关键。本文从能耗强度相关理论出发，分析我国中长期制造业能耗强度变动特征，参考现有文献研究，提出影响制造业能耗强度的相关因素并进行机理分析，进而基于1980-2014年相关时间序列数据，建立向量自回归（VAR）模型实证分析各影响因素作用大小。最后，结合已有结论，提出推进能源价格改革、优化能源消费结构等降低我国制造业能耗强度的对策建议。86691

毕业论文关键词：制造业；能耗强度；VAR模型

Study on the change of energy intensity and its influencing factors of manufacturing industry in China

Abstract With the rapid development of China's economy turn to high-speed development, the economic transformation and upgrading put forward higher requirements to the level and quality of economic development。 For a long time, the high growth of China's economy is at the expense of high consumption of energy。 Industry as the mainstay of the national economy has a bounden duty to play an important role in energy conservation。 To achieve industrial energy conservation, the manufacturing sector is the key。 Based on the relevant theory of energy intensity, this paper analyzes the change characteristics of manufacturing energy intensity in the mid-long term。 According to the existing literature, this paper proposes its influencing factors and gives reasons for them。 Then based on the related time series data from 1980 to 2014,the paper establishes a vector auto-regression (VAR) model to make an empirical analysis of the factors to detect their impact on the manufacturing energy intensity。 Finally, combined with the existing conclusions, the paper puts forward some suggestions such as promoting the reform of energy price，optimizing the structure of energy consumption to reduce energy intensity of manufacturing industry in our country。

Key words: manufacturing industry; energy intensity; VAR model

目  录

0 引言 1

1 相关理论方法 1

1。1能耗强度 2

1。2波动理论 2

1。3能源的回弹效应 3

1。4环境的库兹涅茨曲线 3

2 我国制造业能耗强度变动分析 4

2。1 我国制造业增加值变动特征 4

2。2 我国制造业能源消耗总量特征 5

2。3 我国制造业能耗强度变动特征 7

3 我国制造业能耗强度的影响因素分析 8

3。1能源价格 8

3。2能源消费结构 9

3。3企业产权结构 10

3。4企业规模 11

3。5 FDI 12

3。6技术进步 12

3。7全社会固定资产投资结构 14

3。8产业结构 16

3。9能源政策 16

3。10经济发展水平 17

4 基于VAR的我国制造业能耗强度影响因素实证分析