中国和越南的比较研究汇率波动对经济增长的影响
关键词 越南 汇率波动 经济增长 Granger检验
毕业论文中文摘要
毕 业 论 文 外 文 摘 要
Title The impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Development—based on Vietnam and China
Abstract
Fluctuations in exchange rates will directly affect the economy and trade between the two countries and foreign direct investment, and changes in the money supply will change the price level through the transmission mechanism, and will happen eventually affect employment and economic growth. Therefore, quantitative study on the economic impact of exchange rate fluctuations is very necessary and important. This paper studies the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on Vietnam's economic growth, given similar conditions in Vietnam and China, the paper will also analyze the impact of foreign exchange fluctuations on China and Vietnam's economic growth, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the comparison of the two countries economic growth. The results show that fluctuations in exchange rates and economic growth interactions in China performed better than Vietnam more fully. In China, a stable exchange rate helps to steady economic growth, especially in long-term economic growth depends on a stable exchange rate. Therefore, a stable exchange rate should be one of the important tasks of foreign exchange policy. In Vietnam, the unstable exchange rate mechanism of the impact on economic growth, therefore, foreign policy is not necessarily confined to a certain period of exchange rate stability target.
Keywords: Vietnam; Exchange rate volatility; Economic development;
Granger test
目 次
1 引言 1
1.1 问题提出 1
1.2研究思路和方法 1
1.2.1 研究思路 1
1.2.2 研究方法 2
1.3论文结构及主要内容 2
2相关理论和研究现状 3
2.1 汇率与汇率制度 3
2.1.1 汇率的概念 3
2.2.2 汇率制度的概念 3
2.2 汇率波动的影响因素 4
2.3 汇率波动和经济增长 5
2.4 国内外研究现状 6
3汇率波动对经济增长的实证分析 9
3.1中越汇率波动及经济增长分析 9
3.1.1中国经济增长及汇率波动现状 9
3.1.2 越南经济增长及汇率波动现状 12
3.2 中国汇率波动对经济增长的影响分析 15
3.3越南汇率波动对经济增长的影响分析 17
3.4实证结果总结 18
4政策建议及研究展望 19
4.1政策建议 19
4.1.1 进一步完善汇率制度 19
4.1.2提高资本市场效率 19