2008年金融危机前后中国货币政策非对称效应研究
关键词 货币政策 非对称效应 货币供应量 VAR模型
毕业论文外文摘要
Title A research of the monetary policy asymmetric effect in China around the 2008 financial crisis
Abstract
It’s known that the operation of monetary policy becomes increasingly difficult and the transmission efficiency is relatively low in China.Firstly，it did a brief review of the implementation of China’s monetary policy from 2007.In the empirical analysis， after researching all three levels of money supply,it chose M1 to represent the monetary policy.Selecting industrial added value (GDP) to represent output and CPI and stock price index (SP) on behave of the price.Using VAR model to investigate the real effects of the tight and loose monetary policy before and after the financial crisis.
According to de results, asymmetric effects of monetary policy do exist during this period.Tight monetary policy act more markedly on GDP and CPI than expansionary monetary policy，but the asymmetric effect is not significant and the regulation effect on the economy is not very ideal.Another conclusion is that the M1 is not the granger cause of SP，and there exists a negative correlation between these two.Combined with the specific situation in our country，this paper tries to analyze the reasons of the existence of asymmetry，and puts forward policy recommendations in the final.
Keywords monetary policy asymmetric effect money supply VAR model
目 次
1 引言 1
1.1 选题背景与意义 1
1.2 本文的研究内容和框架结构 2
1.3 本文的创新和不足 3
2 文献综述 4
2.1 货币政策非对称效应的存在性研究 4
2.2 导致货币政策非对称效应的原因 6
3 我国货币政策回顾：2007-2010年 8
3.1 货币政策目标及效果指标 8
3.2 2007年1月-2008年6月紧缩性货币政策 8
3.3 2008年7月-2010年12月扩张性货币政策 10
3.4 2011年1月-2014年12月稳健货币政策 12
4 我国货币政策非对称效应的实证分析 14
4.1 变量的选择和数据处理 14
4.2 待验证假说 15
4.3 实证研究思路及VAR模型原理 15
4.4 我国货币政策非对称性的实证研究 17
5 我国货币政策非对称性效应的原因分析 26
5.1 货币政策对股价指数非对称性原因分析 26
5.2 货币政策对产出和一般物价非对称性原因分析 27
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