汇率传递与我国通货膨胀关系的实证研究
随着全球经济一体化的不断加深，各个开放的经济体之间的贸易往来将会越来越频繁，由购买力平价理论我们可以得知，如果我们想要把国际价格转化成国内价格，就必须使用汇率这个中介，因为国内物价水平深受汇率变动的影响。本文将采取理论分析结合实证分析的方法探讨汇率变动传递效应对通货膨胀的影响。但在2005年汇率制度改革后，我国国际贸易逆差和外汇储备激增，人民币升值压力不断增大，升值超过预期，大量投机资本和国际投资流入国内，国际收支平衡状况出现严重恶化，国内货币供应量大大超过了需求量，导致了严重的通货膨胀问题。本文实证研究了2005年汇率制度改革后汇率传递与通货膨胀之间的关系。
毕业论文关键词：汇率传递 通货膨胀 人民币升值 实证研究
The empirical study of exchange rate transmission and inflation in China
Abstract: Exchange rate transmission refers to the exchange rate changes to national product prices and the impact of domestic prices of imports and exports, reflects the import and export enterprises to transfer foreign currency exchange difference for the price changes caused by the absorption and transmission, and then to the domestic price conduction process.Since the collapse of the bretton woods system, the exchange rate transmission studies became a hot issue in the field of international economy.Generally speaking, the exchange rate transmission is a kind of implementation macroeconomic international transmission mechanism, the exchange rate transmission and relationship between China's inflation for the use of central bank exchange rate adjustment and grasp the effectiveness of monetary policy has important reference value.The inflation problem is affecting China's economic development and social stability, the volatility of inflation in recent years has become China's macro economy healthy and an important factor in social stability.In this context, as the key macroeconomic variables, foreign currency exchange rates reflect the country's currency, prices reflect the internal value of its currency, on the basis of mutual contact and unity between the two, jointly safeguard the stability of a country's currency.
With the deepening of global economic integration, the trade between the open economies will be more and more frequently, we can learn by purchasing power parity theory, if we want to convert the international price to domestic price, must be used currency the mediation, because the domestic price level is under the influence of exchange rate changes.This article will adopt the theory analysis combined with empirical analysis method, discuss the influences of exchange rate movements transfer effect on inflation.But in 2005, after the exchange rate system reform, China's international trade deficit and foreign exchange reserves, the appreciation of the renminbi pressure increasing, to appreciate more than expected, a large number of speculative capital into the domestic and international investment, international balance of payments situation severe deterioration, the domestic money supply, significantly more than the demand, led to a serious inflation problem.In this paper, empirical research on the reform of exchange rate system in 2005 after the relationship between the exchange rate transmission and inflation.
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