我国城乡居民储蓄率影响因素研究
毕业论文关键词：居民储蓄率；基尼系数；回归分析；
The Factors of Chinese Urban and Rural Household Saving Rate
Abstract：China's urban and rural residents savings rate influence factor research. A country's savings rate is an important factor in economic development, its height is has a very important effect on levels of economic growth. In recent years, China's economy has been in a stage of rapid development, which causes the high savings rate in our country has become the focus of attention at home and abroad theory and research. Based on the saving rate of the residents as the research samples, through to our country since 1978 the statistical data of urban residents savings model is set up. The income level of urban residents, interest rates, inflation rates and the Gini coefficient for urban residents as factors, the use of econometric theory and mathematical models have learned to establish multiple regression model, the related data analysis and testing, the conclusion that related to the dependent variable degree of influence on the savings rate. Finally, the analysis results are given to their own opinion, found that the Gini coefficient selected variables impact on the savings rate elasticity of the greatest interest, although it will have an impact, but from other countries, the elasticity is relatively small, the residents' disposable income on the savings rate there are also affected.
Key Words：household saving rate；the Gini coefficient；Regression analysis
目 录
摘 要 1
引言 3
1.经济理论的解释陈述 5
1.1居民储蓄率 5
1.2 收入水平 5
1.3 利率 5
1.4 物价水平 5
1.5 基尼系数 5
2.模型理论介绍 6
2.1回归分析 6
2.2经济意义的检验 6
2.3计量经济学检验 7
3.城镇居民储蓄率影响因素的模型建立与实证分析 7
3.1 储蓄率以及其他变量趋势分析 7
3.2数据模型建立与数据分析 9
3.3实证分析 10
3.3.1经济意义的检验 10
3.3.2统计检验 10
3.3.3计量经济学检验 10
3.3.4最佳模型以及结论 12
3.4 模型结论分析 12
3.5 其他影响因素的理论分析 12
3.5.1人口结构对储蓄率的影响 12
3.5.2 社会体制对储蓄率的影响 13
4.建议与对策 13
参考文献 15
附录 17
我国城乡居民储蓄率影响因素研究
引言
从1979年到现如今，我国的储蓄率一直在随着经济增长和收入水平的提高呈现出不断上升的趋势.进入90年代以后，我国的居民储蓄量的增长速度一直保持在两位数，增长速度上升到了一个新的阶段。然而事情都有两面性，特别是在现如今经济高速发展的情况下，政府就会更加在意这种高储蓄会不会有隐藏的弊端，较高的储蓄率是支持经济增长一个很重要的因素，可以给我国的经济发展提供丰富的资金来源。而且较高的储蓄保障了银行机构的资金流动，可以使银行有一个更稳定的系统。然而储蓄并不是越高就会越好，凡事都有一个极限，过高的储蓄率常常是资金的投资和消费降低的很大原因。储蓄率也必然会存在一个最优储蓄率，超过最有储蓄率太多也会对我国的国民经济运行及整改经济发展带来影响。所以现在越来越多的专业人士对我国高储蓄问题的加以关注，通过分析影响居民储蓄的因素，才能采取相应的措施来应对公关经济政策，是储蓄率保持在一个出尽经济发展的一个合理水平。
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