摘要每个国家在国际经济贸易中会把汇率当做重要的综合性参考指标，因为汇率是调节国际经济活动收支的重要杠杆，并且不论是在全球贸易活动中还是在金融市场领域里汇率一直提供着价格变换的功能。汇率浮动影响着国内经济贸易活动，并且对各国之间的贸易均衡也有着重大的意义。综合来看，如果本币汇率降低，那么出口将会增加、进口会被抑制的；若本国货币汇率上升，则会使进口贸易额增长，使出口贸易额减少。1992年之后，改革开放使本币汇率发生了变动，我国的出口贸易额不断增加，一定程度上使我国的国际贸易收支状况得到改善。43545

自人民币汇率改革以来，到目前为止虽然期间也有过波动，但人民币总体上是处在升值的状态中的。而人民币升值的影响是一把双刃剑，中美之间的贸易因为我国长期的顺差，摩擦也突显出来，因此必须正视汇率的影响，所以关于探究进出口贸易规模的影响因素也就成为了一个重要的课题。中国是美国的主要贸易伙伴，是美国的首要进口来源地。同时，美国也是中国重要的贸易伙伴，中国和美国的经济贸易已经密不可分。因此，探究中美之间贸易额的变化是否受人民币汇率浮动的影响有着深远的意义。

毕业论文关键词：人民币汇率制度；汇率波动；进出口贸易；引力模型分析

 An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of RMB Exchange Rate Changes on China's Import and Export Trade: a Case Study of Sino-US Economic and Trade

Abstract

Every country in the international economic and trade will reduce the exchange rate as an important reference index, comprehensive because the exchange rate is an important lever regulating the international balance of the economic activity, and whether in global trade activities or in the field of financial market exchange rate has been providing transform the function of the price. Floating exchange rate influences the domestic economic and trade activities, and the balance of trade among nations is also of great significance. Taken together, if your currency is reduced, the export will increase, the import will be suppressed; If their currencies rise, it can make the import trade growth, and reduce export trade. After 1992, making the change of exchange rate reform and opening up, China's export trade volume increased, to some extent , improve our country the balance of payment.

Although so far there have been fluctuations during the reform of RMB exchange rate, but the overall is in a state of appreciation. Impact of the appreciation of the RMB is a double-edged sword, trade between China and the US because of our long-term surplus, friction is also highlighted. Therefore, it is necessary to face the exchange rate influence, so inquiried import and export trade scale factors has become an important topic. China is the main trading partner of the United States, is the primary source of imports of the United states. At the same time, the United States is China's important trading partners, China and the United States very close economic and trade. Therefore, to explore the change of the volume of trade between China and the United States under the influence of the RMB exchange rate floating is of far-reaching significance.

Key Words： RMB  exchange  rate  regime；exchange  rate  flunctuation； import  and  export  trade； the  gravity  model  analysis    

目　录

摘要 I

Abstract Ⅱ

目录 Ⅲ

一、引言 1

（一）研究背景 1

（二）研究目的和意义