摘要随着经济全球化的发展，许多国家主要依靠出口拉动经济增长。当出口依存度上升时，实际产出似乎也在不断增长。那么，是否存在一个最优出口依存度使得实际产出达到最大？针对这个问题，本文以江浙沪三个省市为研究对象，使用自改革开放至今的数据，分四步进行研究。首先，针对长三角地区的出口依存度及实际产出现状分析发现，长三角地区的出口在实际产出中占有较大比重，并且长三角的出口商品集中在劳动密集型性的低附加值产品上。其次，通过对不同出口依存度下出口对实际产出拉动作用的分析，提出存在最优出口依存度的假设。随后，通过对各省市出口依存度与实际产出的散点图观察发现与二次函数相似，于是对其进行回归分析，进一步计算得到江浙沪最优出口依存度范围。最后，通过比较不同出口依存度下出口对实际产出的贡献度及拉动作用，对最优出口依存度范围进行检验，并据此给出控制出口依存度在最优范围或者尽力摆脱低端锁定的建议。48154

Abstract：With the development of economic globalization, the growth of many economies mainly depends on the exports. When the export dependence increases, the real output growth appears to have continued. It comes to the question that whether there will be an optimal export dependence to make the actual output reach the maximum? In order to solve this problem, I chose the Yangtze River Delta (Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces and Shanghai) as the research object, and used the data collected since the Reform and Opening. This thesis is pided into four parts. Firstly, the analysis of the actual output and export dependency of the Yangtze River Delta shows that exports account for a large proportion of the actual output, and the labor-intensive and low value-added products are the main export goods. Secondly, through the analysis how the export of different export dependence stimulates the actual output, I made an assumption that there is an optimal degree of export dependence. Thirdly, I found the scatter gram of export dependence and the real GDP conforms to a quadratic function, so I made a regression analysis and figured out the optimal export dependences. Finally, I examined it by comparing the contribution degree and stimulating effect of exports on actual output of different economies with different export dependences, and made a suggestion that we should control the export dependence in the optimal range, or we should try to get rid of low-end locking.

毕业论文关键词：出口依存度； 实际产出； 增长率；优化选择

Keyword: export dependence; actual output; growth rate; optimization 

目    录

1. 引言 2

1.1 研究背景与意义 2

1.2 研究内容 2

2. 文献综述 2

2.1 出口依存度的涵义 2

2.2 出口依存度与实际产出增长关系的研究现状 2

2.2.1 出口对经济增长研究现状 2

2.2.2 出口依存度优化选择研究现状 2

2.3 现有研究存在的问题 2

3. 长三角出口依存度及实际GDP增长现状 2

3.1