摘要中国的影子银行发展规模已初步有一定的规模，研究影子银行的相关问题对经济发展有参考意义。影子银行表现出的信用创造功能，会进一步干扰中国货币政策的实施，影响实施的效果。本文采用了实证分析、横向分析的方法。首先研究了我国影子银行基本的相关内容。从理论上分析了影子银行体系对我国货币传导渠道的影响的同时，还选取数据进行了一系列实证分析，本文选取了 2006～ 2015 年的相关的季度数据，建立的是VAR模型，先进行单位根检验来检验数据的平稳性，再根据检验的结果进行脉冲响应分析、方差分解的分析，最后根据实证分析的结果，从计量经济学角度来分析货币政策各层次的影响效果。结果显示：影子银行的发展会影响物价水平的变动，且它的规模也会扩大社会上的货币量；同时对货币供应量有长期的影响，但长期看来对经济增长有负面影响，由此可得，国家应加大对影子银行的监管力度。51604

毕业论文关键词：影子银行；货币传导机制 ；VAR模型

A study of monetary transmission mechanism under the influence of China's shadow banking

Abstract

China's shadow banking is preliminary already have a certain size of development scale,  the current study of shadow banking related problems with the reality of economic significance. Shadow banking show the credit creation function, would interfere with the conduct of monetary policy in China, further influence the effect of the implementation. This paper adopted the method of empirical analysis, horizontal analysis. First studied the shadow banking in our country the basic related content. Shadow banking system of our country are analyzed theoretically the influence of monetary transmission channels at the same time, has also made a series of empirical analysis, to select data paper selected the related quarterly data from 2006 to 2015, established the VAR model, first carries on the unit root test, according to test results for the impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis, and finally, according to the empirical results in measuring economic point of view to analyze the effect of monetary policy at all levels. The results showed that: the size of the shadow banking development will promote the changes in the price level, the development of the shadow banking will expand the amount of money; at the same time has a long-term impact on the money supply ,but in the long run have a negative impact on economic growth , thus, countries should step up to the shadow banking regulation.

Key Words: shadow Banking ；  monetary transmission mechanism ；  analysis of var model

 目录

摘  要 I

Abstract II

目录 III

一  引言 1

（一）研究背景与研究意义 1

（二）文献综述 2

（三）研究思路和方法 2

（四）论文的内容和框架 3

二  影子银行影响货币政策传导的理论分析 4

（一）影子银行体系产生的流动性 4

（二）影子银行对货币政策传导途径的影响 5

三  影子银行对货币政策传导影响的实证分析 7

（一）计量模型的设定 7

（二）实证分析结果及分析 9

四  对货币政策传导机制的建议