摘要近年来，我国经济持续快速增长，赊销成为主流交易方式，这为商业保理业务的发展 奠定了市场基础。然而商业保理行业在面临巨大发展机遇的同时也面临着巨大的挑战。商 业保理行业自 2012 年实施以来，在我国尚且属于初级阶段，发展过程中存在许多问题，保 理业务风险突出。商业保理业务的开展是基于企业的债权信用，一旦出现信用问题保理业 务很难继续开展。所以控制信用风险无疑是推进商业保理发展的重点。本文基于这个重点， 着重介绍商业保理的理论知识，并且使用 KMV 模型进行实证分析，结果表明优化后的 KMV 模型计算得出的违约距离可以作为衡量商业保理中核心企业信用风险的指标，该模 型可以用来区别并预测企业信用风险。78614

毕业论文关键词： 商业保理 KMV 模型 信用风险 违约距离

Title An Experimental Study on Factoring Business Credit Risk Measurement of Commercial Factoring Companies

Abstract In recent years, with the sustained and rapid economic growth of China, credit has become the mainstream transactions, which laid the foundation for the market development of commercial factoring。However, commercial  factoring  industry  is  facing  great development opportunities,

but also faces enormous challenges。Since commercial factoring implemented in our country in 2012，it yet belongs to the initial stage and there are many problems in the development  process,

factoring risk outstanding。Commercial factoring is based on corporate debt credit and once the factoring credit problems arise, it is difficult to continue its factoring business。So there is no doubt that controlling the credit risk is the key to promote commercial factoring。Based on this focus, we focus on the theoretical knowledge of business factoring,and use KMV model to study。Through empirical analysis,the distance to default calculated by optimized KMV model can be used as a indicator to measure credit risk of commercial factoring。The model can be used to distinguish and predict corporate credit risk。

Keywords:  commercial factoring  KMV model  credit risk  distance to default

本 科 毕 业 论   文 第 I 页

目 次

1 引言 1

1。1  研究背景及意义 1

1。2  相关研究综述 1

1。3  研究内容与方法 3

2 商业保理概述 5

2。 1  商业保理基本内容 5

2。 2  商业保理发展状况 8

2。 3  商业保理发展中存在的问题与风险 9

3 商业保理信用风险分析 11

3。 1  商业保理信用风险 11

3。 2  商业保理信用风险度量方法的选择 12

3 。 3 KMV 模型基本原理 13

4 实证研究 15

4。 1 商业保理信用风险度量实证研究 15

4。 2 KMV 模型优化