摘要：电影票房的预测对于一部电影的成功上映至关重要，目前对电影票房预测的研究存在着精度不高、实际应用价值低等缺陷，通过对中国电影票房方面的资料收集及研究，提出使用对数线性回归模型预测电影票房。首先，确定影响中国电影票房的主要因素并确定其输出格式；其次，使用箱线图对所有影响因素进行分析；再次，在电影票房与影片类型、上映年份、上映档期、宣发公司类型、影片时长、是否原创、是否真人真事、是否续集、导演是否获奖、导演是否从演员转型10个变量之间建立对数线性回归模型；最后，运用该模型对这一时期上映的电影票房进行预测。

结果表明，2010-2013年和2016年电影票房数据的数据分析结果十分吻合。另外，基于两组数据之上的票房预测误差率均保持在26%左右。基于对数线性回归模型有较好的预测，能够在电影上映前，为其投资出品、宣传发行、风险评估等提供较为可靠的参考，在电影票房预测领域具有客观的实用价值和研究前景。70954

毕业论文关键字：对数线性回归模型；电影票房预测；票房影响因素 

Analysis on the Influencing Factors of Chinese Movie Box Office and the Prediction of Movie Box Office

Abstract: For the success of a film, The prediction of the movies’ box office is very important. At present, there are some shortcomings in the research of film box office prediction, such as low precision and being short of practical application value. Based on the data collection and research of Chinese film box office, we offer a method of box office prediction based on linear regression model. First of all, to determine the factors affecting the Chinese film box office and its output format. Secondly, according to the obtained data, we use the box chart to analyze all the affecting factors. Thirdly, we build logarithmic linear regression model for the film box office on the type of film, release year, The length of the film, whether it is original, whether it is true, whether the sequel, whether the director award and whether the director have a transition. Finally, we use the logarithmic linear regression model to forecast the box office of the movie which was screened recently.

The results show that data analysis results about films’ box office in 2010-2013 and 2016 are very consistent. In addition, based on the two sets of data, the box office forecast error rate remained at around 26%. Based on the logarithmic linear regression model, it can provide a reliable reference for the production, propaganda and risk assessment of the film before the release. It has good practical value and prospect in the field of forecasting.

Key words: Logarithmic linear regression model, Movie box office forecast, Box office influencing factors, numerical simulation

目录

1 引言 4

1.1 课题的目的和意义 4

1.2 国内外研究现状和发展趋势 4

1.3 文献综述 5

1.4 研究目的与范围 5

2 相关原理介绍 6

2.1 箱线图 6

2.2 对数线性回归模型 6

2.3 假设检验 7

3 模型建立 7

3.1 影响因素分析