摘要本文首先介绍了灰色预测理论产生的历史背景、国内外研究现状以及未来发展趋势，紧接着引出灰色模型在浙江省GDP预测中的应用话题，进而再点明本文主要解决的问题，研究目的以及研究的主要内容。其次，展开介绍了灰色系统理论的相关概念，模型特征，理论动态等相关问题。紧接着从灰色关联度的角度分析序列之间关联度，再研究灰色系统理论的建模问题着手，分别阐述建模思想、建模机理和数学原理。引出常见的GM模型群，并对模型的适用范围，模型的改进方式、误差计算方法作了简要的概括。最后，针对灰色模型的预测价值，着重研究了GM（1,1）基本模型、G（1,1）改进模型以及Verhulst模型的预测效果和精度，并在此基本上提出了Verhulst模型的新定义，作为未来研究的方向。一方面，在研究过程中，主要选取了浙江省统计年鉴上的 GDP 原始数值进行累减生成，通过模型的分析对比，残差的分析、均方差的研究等方式，得到改进模型以及Verhulst模型的预测精度显著上升，达到了本文研究的目的。另一方面，灰色模型的改进和新信息的产生、系统的功能行为以及演化规律的变化，对未来浙江省GDP预测研究价值会不断的上升，从而更好的服务于现实生活，为经济决策作出更大的作用。73016

Abstract This paper describes the historical background of gray prediction generated by current research and future trends, followed by extraction Grey Model topic in Zhejiang Province, forecasting the GDP, which can then be highlighted in this paper to solve the problem, study and research purposes main content。 Second, expand introduces concepts of gray system theory, model features, dynamic theory and other related issues。 Followed by sequence analysis of the link between the degree of relevance in terms of gray, and then modeling study of gray system theory to proceed, respectively elaborate modeling idea, mechanism modeling and mathematical principles。 GM leads to a common model group, and the scope of the model to improve the way the model error calculation methods are briefly summarized。 Finally, the predictive value for the gray model, focusing on the GM (1,1) Basic model, G (1,1) improved model and predict the effectiveness and accuracy of Verhulst model, and this is basically proposed a new definition Verhulst Model , as the direction of future research。 On the one hand, in the course of the study, the main raw value selected GDP Zhejiang Statistical Yearbook on were tired Save generated by analyzing and comparing models, residual analysis, research, etc。 are variance, improved model and Verhulst model a significant increase forecast accuracy, to achieve the purpose of this study。 On the other hand, results in improved and new information gray model, functional behavior of the system as well as changes in the evolution of the future prediction of the value of Zhejiang Province, GDP will continue to rise, in order to better serve the real life, the economic decision-making a greater role。

毕业论文关键词：GDP预测；灰色模型；灰色关联度；Verhulst模型

Keyword: GDP forecast; gray model; gray correlative degree; Verhulst model 

目录

第一章 绪论 1

1。1引言 1

1。2国内外研究现状及拟解决的问题 1

1。3 研究目的和研究内容 2

第二章 灰色系统理论基本概念介绍 3

2。 1灰色系统的基本概念 3

2。2灰色系统理论的产生与发展动态 4

2。3灰色系统的不确定性 4