摘要：江苏处于亚欧大陆东部沿海地带中部，受季风气候影响显著，极端高温事件对居民生活、景观环境、经济发展、生态保护提出了严峻的挑战。本文基于江苏省14个国家气象站1960-2014年的气温统计数据、河网密度、地形、土地利用和人口统计等数据，从自然灾害理论对致灾因子、孕灾环境因子、承载体因子、防灾减灾能力因子等方面进行分析。采用层次分析法（AHP）对高温灾害风险评价模型参数权重进行确定，并将各层因子作归一化处理，建立起高温灾害风险评价及区划体系。结果表明江苏省苏南地区高温灾害风险最高，其次为苏中地区，苏北地区高温灾害风险最小。91527

毕业论文关键词：高温灾害，层次分析法，极差标准化，风险区划，江苏省

Abstract ： Jiangsu is located in the eastern coastal region of Eurasia continent, which is significantly affected by monsoon climate。 Temperature extremes bring severe challenge to the residents living, landscape environment, economic development, and ecological protection。 Based on daily temperature data at 14 meteorological stations from 1960 to 2014, river network density, topography, land use and economic statistics in Jiangsu Province, this paper analyzes four assessment factors of disaster-causing factors, disaster-pregnant environment factor, vulnerability factor of hazard bearing body and the disaster prevention and mitigation factor from the view of natural disaster theory。 In addition, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was adopt to ascertain the weight of each factor。 The evaluation; assessment factor of each layer of AHP were also normalized by difference method for standardization of treatment。 This paper finally established the risk evaluation system and zone system of high temperature disaster。 The results show that the risk of high temperature disaster in southern Jiangsu is the highest, followed by the mid-part of Jiangsu Province, and the northern Jiangsu belong to low risk area。

Keywords： disaster of high temperature, analytic hierarchy process, range normalization, risk regionalization, Jiangsu province

目 录

1 前言 4

2 研究区概况、源G于J优L尔V论N文M网WwW.youeRw.com 原文+QQ75201`8766 数据及研究方法 5

2。1 研究区概况 5

2。2 数据来源 5

2。3 研究方法 6

3 结果分析 8

3。1 致灾因子危险性 8

3。2 孕灾环境因子敏感性 9

3。3 承载体因子易损性 10

3。4 防灾减灾能力因子适应性 11

3。5 高温灾害风险指数 12

结论 14

参考文献 15

致谢 17

1 前言

高温灾害是指较长时间内始终保持较高温度而对一个地区的人员、动植物产生不能适应的现象[1]。IPCC第五次评估报告指出全球温度在近130年来升高了0。85摄氏度；21世纪的第一个十年是1850年以来最暖的十年；21世纪大多数地区的高温灾害事件持续时间和频率将会增加[2]。高温灾害事件不仅对自然景观、水文生态、地质等环境产生影响，而且还会对人体健康提出严重的威胁和挑战，因此，对极端高温进行风险评价与区划具有重要的意义[12-18]。