中国房地产价格与股票价格的关系研究
关键词 房地产价格 股票价格 周期性 顶部价格
毕业论文外文摘要
Title The relationship between real estate prices and stock prices in China
Abstract
In China, real estate and stocks as the two main body of the Chinese investment market, has been the concern of many investors. In order to explore whether a relationship exists between China's real estate prices and stock prices, this relationship is what kind of relationship, why would such a relationship exists, the the theoretical analysis and the method to establish the combination of empirical analysis of the linear regression model, has conducted the research to the Chinese real estate prices and stock prices. The results of the study indicated that to a whole process of investment subject (from the capital investment began to withdraw funds so far), in the short and medium term, the relationship between the prices of real estate and stock according to the investment of time before and after points for negative correlation and no relationship between the two, two form a cycle, the short and medium term of the real estate price and stock price in the form of the cycle and in the short and medium term initial investment, stock prices on the price of real estate have a larger negative impact; in the long term, prices of real estate and stock is always negative correlation. Both of them have a significant negative impact.
Keywords The price of real estate；Stock price；Periodic；The top price
目 次
1 引言 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究目的和意义 1
1.3 研究方法和主要内容 1
2 文献综述 3
2.1对房地产价格与股票价格关系的研究 3
2.2对关系产生的原因的研究 3
2.3文献评述 4
3 理论分析与猜想 5
3.1 数据观察 5
3.2 理论分析 6
3.3 中国房地产价格与股票价格的关系——一个理论猜想 8
4 实证分析 9
4.1 模型设定 9
4.2 参数选取 9
4.3 数据 10
4.4 回归结果 10
4.5 实证结果分析 26
结论 28
致谢 29
参考文献 30
附录 31
1 引言
1．1 研究背景
经过股改，中国股市从体制上总算基本完成了革新，而随着机构投资者的壮大，通胀压力的加大，普通居民理财意识的觉醒，股市也逐渐复苏，开始从2006年缓步上行。到2007年5月，已创新高到4335点。这时，财政部发文，上调印花税，这也被戏称为“半夜鸡叫”。股指虽然暂时下挫，但很快重拾升势，并出现以银行等大蓝筹为主力的主升行情。最终，在2007年10月16日，上证综指攀上6124点的历史最高点。随后，由于中石油上市一路下挫、美国发生次贷危机，股市见顶回落，并最终演变为一场股灾。期间虽然发生过下调印花税股指几乎涨停的插曲，但终难敌大势，最终股指一直跌到1664点才止跌企稳。随后在2014年，经过轮熊市的中国股市又开始了一波牛市。
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