房地产业与经济增长关系实证研究
毕业论文关键词：城市规模；房地产开发投资；经济增长；面板数据
An empirical study: the relationship between GDP and real estate investment of Cities in China
Abstract： The relationship between real estate investment and regional economic growth has been concerned because of the hot real estate market. Scholars hope to provide the basis for the real estate policy by studying the relationship between them. According to the State Department in November 21, 2014 issued "on the adjustment of city size standards notice", cities are pided into huge city, large city, big city, medium-sized city according to their permanent resident population, the study will research the relationship between the different characteristics of different scale city real estate industry and economic growth. First according to Cobb Douglas production function, the author establish a panel database of real estate investment, real estate investment, regional population and economic growth (GDP), through the unit root test and cointegration test showed that, under whatever kind of city scale, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among real estate investment, real estate investment, and labor. the causal relationship and then through the Grainger test to determine the real estate investment and economic growth, the results show: when the lag is 0,1, or 2, the real estate investment and economic growth are mutual granger causality in both the group of huge cities and large cities. The boom of real estate and economy are mutually promoted. When the lag is 2, real estate is the granger cause of economic growth, but economic growth is not granger cause of the real estate. The economy will develop if the government stimulate real estate market. But in middle-size cities, no matter what the lag is, there is no relationship between real estate investment and economic growth.
Key words: city scale；real estate investment；economic growth；panel data
目 录
摘要4
关键词4
Abstract4
Key words4
引言（或绪论）4
一、文献综述5
二、研究方法7
（一）面板数据7
1．面板数据简介7
2．面板数据的三种形式7
（1）混合回归模型7
（2）固定截距模型8
（3）变系数模型8
3. 面板数据模型形式设定8
（1）Hausman检验8
（2）F检验8
4.格兰杰因果检验9
（二）单位根检验10
（三）协整检验10
三、对全国300个地级市2000到2015年数据的实证研究10
（一）基本方程与数据来源10