我国股市与经济周期关系分析
毕业论文关键词：股市周期；经济周期；协整检验Chinese stock market and economic cyclerelationship analysis
Abstract Along with our country's reform and opening up, the rapid development ofmacro economy, the establishment of the stock market development in the early 90s,until recent years, the relationship between our country's economic development andfinancial capital market is becoming close increasingly, either side of the volatilitywill affect the other party. The boom and bust of stock market, reflecting the stand orfall of economic situation in our country, the "barometer" function of the stock marketis obvious gradually. Especially in recent years, a growing number of retail investorsbegan to participate in the stock market, and the changes in the macroeconomicalways is the direction of stock market, so more and more people begin to research therelationship between Chinese stock market and macro economic cycle.This article first reviewed the study results from domestic and foreign scholarsregarding the correlation between stock market cycle and economic cycle and simpleintroduced the situation in our country. Then, this paper chose the quarterly Shanghaicomposite index from 1997 to 2015 and quarterly GDP index to represent the stockmarket cycle and economic cycle,using the X - 12 seasonal adjustment method, H - Pfiltering, ADF test,cointegration test and granger test for quantitative analysis andqualitative analysis. Come to a conclusion that a long-term equilibrium relationshipexists between stock market cycle and economic cycle.Finally based on theconclusion,puts forward suggestions for the government, enterprises and retailinvestors respectively.
KeyWords: stock market cycle；economic cycle；cointegration test
目录
摘要I
Abstract.II
目录.III
一、绪论.1
（一）研究背景1
（二）文献综述2
（三）本文研究思路3
二、我国股市与经济周期的发展概况..4
（一）中国股市的发展情况.4
（二）中国经济周期的运行情况.5
（三）我国股市与经济周期关系的理论分析.6
三、实证模型分析8
（一）数据来源与说明.8
（二）数据处理和定性分析.8
（三）模型定量分析.10
（四）分析总结.13
四、基本结论与政策建议..14
（一）基本结论.14
（二）政策建议.14
参考文献..17
一 绪论（一）研究背景我国于上世纪 70年代末实施了改革开放，此后，我国经济发展速度不断加快，综合国力不断增强，在国际上拥有了一席之地，产生的国际影响力也日益增强。我国经济在实现迅猛发展后，资本市场发展步伐也不断加快。上世纪 90年代，我国建立了股票市场，这是我国资本市场发展的一个重要标志。股票市场的建立让企业获得了新的融资渠道，同时也让投资者拥有了更广阔的投资空间。政府之所以建立股票市场，是为了推动经济发展，所以股票市场的发展和经济有着密切的联系，股市的波动也会影响宏观经济的稳定发展。在过去的几十年里，我国股市实现了跨越式发展，并在世界范围内产生了一定的影响力，这都推动了我国资本市场的发展。
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