摘要制造业作为广东省的支柱产业，其稳定增长对于广东整体经济提升有很重要作用。然而，近年的制造业发展情况表明，广东制造业还是属于以量的扩张为主的生产模式，甚至有陷入“低端锁定”的趋势。本文将广东省制造业增长的源泉主要归结为要素投入和技术进步两个方面，选取1999-2010年广东省制造业中发展较为显著的15个行业面板数据，构建生产函数模型分析资本投入、劳动力投入对制造业行业产值增长的贡献程度，并以索洛余值表示技术进步，比较不同行业及行业内部这些影响因素的贡献程度。研究表明：（1）广东制造业增长主要依靠要素投入，资本和劳动力投入仍然是有效促进制造业增长的关键因素;（2）技术进步是广东省制造业增长的重要动力；（3）扩大要素投入比例有利于产值进一步增加，具有规模报酬递增效应。结论表明，广东省制造业的增长不仅要依靠加大要素投入，还需要针对制造业行业差异，关注不同要素投入的影响大小，有所侧重的提高这一要素投入效率，通过加大研发力度，为制造业企业增加融资渠道，加强人力资本建设，避免陷入“低端锁定”陷阱。48143

毕业论文关键字：要素投入；技术；制造业增长；生产函数

Abstract: As the pillar of Guangdong’s economy, the stable growth in manufacturing industry has significant impact on upgrading Guangdong’s overall economy. However, the development in recent years shows that the growth of Guangdong manufacturing industry is mainly based on volume expansion in production mode, even has the trend in falling into the “low-end locking” trap. This paper has pided the sources of Guangdong’s manufacturing growth into two aspects, factor inputs and technical progress respectively. It makes use of a panel data of 15 industries from 1999-2010 and builds the Cobb-Douglas production function to verify the importance of capital input and labor input. This allows the identification of the sources of industrial output growth. Solow residual value is used to represent technical progress then compared with different industries as well as internal industries about contribution of different factors. The results indicate that: (1) factor input is the primary determinant of manufacturing production growth, capital and labor input are the key factors facilitating this growth; (2) technical progress is crucial for manufacturing growth; (3) expanding factors input can help the production further go up with the increasing returns to scale. It is found that Guangdong manufacturing growth should not only rely on increasing factor inputs, but also pay close attention to their degree of influence in the light of industries features and emphasis on enhancing this factor input efficiency, via increasing R&D investment, offering more financing channels to those manufacturing enterprises, strengthening the construction of human capital, thereby getting rid of the low-end locking trap. 

Keyword：factor input; technology; manufacturing growth; production function

目     录

1．引言 5

1.1选题背景与意义 5

1.2研究内容 5

1.3研究方法 6

2.国内外研究现状综述 6

2.1 关于制造业竞争力的研究 6

2.2 关于制造业升级路径的研究 6

2.3 关于制造业增长影响因素的研究 7

2.4 研究中存在的问题 7

3． 广东省制造业增长现状分析