摘 要：洪泽湖生态经济区是淮安市重要的经济地带，但在发展的同时也是旱涝灾害频发地区。如何使旱涝灾害造成的损失达到最小值，是该区域防灾减灾所面临的的最重要的问题。因此，风险评价也逐渐在灾害预防和控制中占有较重的地位。本文利用层次分析法对洪泽湖生态经济区的目标层、准则层、指标层进行加权分析，从而达到对其风险的评价。研究表明，洪泽湖生态经济区中得宿迁市、盱眙县以及洪泽县的旱涝灾害各项指标风险度基本都处于较高的标准。根据计算，洪泽湖生态经济区的综合风险度为0。188，在正文构建的旱涝灾害风险度等级划分表中处于中等级别，因此，还需要加强对旱涝灾害的防护。94813

毕业论文关键词：洪泽湖生态经济区，旱涝灾害风险，层次分析法，指标权重

Abstract: The ecological economic zone of Hongze lake is an important economic zone in Huaian city, but it is also in the area of frequent droughts and floods。 With the continuous development of the region, the population is gradually increasing, drought and flood disaster risk source has also been gradually denotation, and disaster consequences are also gradually increased。 How to minimize the damage caused by drought and waterlogging is the most important problem facing the disaster prevention and mitigation in this area。 Therefore, risk assessment is also gradually gaining weight in disaster prevention and control。 This paper analyzes the target layer, criterion layer and index layer of the ecological economic zone of Hongze lake in order to reach the evaluation of its risk。 The study shows that the risk of drought and flood disasters in cities such as Suqian, Yuyi county and Hongze county is generally high in the ecological economic zone of Hongze lake。 According to calculation comprehensive risk degrees of Hongze lake ecological economic zone is 0。188, in the body of the building of drought and flood disaster risk degree of hierarchy in the table is in medium level, therefore, need to strengthen the protection of drought and flood disasters。

Keywords: Hongze lake ecological economic zone,  risk of drought and flood,  analytic hierarchy process,  index weight  

目   录

1  前  言 4

1。1 研究背景和意义 4

1。2 研究方法 4

1。3 数据来源 4

2  区域评价指标选取和评价方法的应用 4

2。1评价指标的选取与体系的构建 4

2。2计算方法与模型构建 6

2。3指标权重确定 8

3 评价结果 9

结  论 12

参 考 文 献 13

致  谢 14

1  前  言

1。1 研究背景和意义论文网

如今由于世界经济加速发展使得对大自然的能源索取增加，排出的温室气体逐渐增多，从而导致一系列的极端气候的发生。因此，引发的旱涝，沙尘暴等自然灾害也越来越频繁。近年来，洪泽湖流域重大洪涝灾害频繁发生，例如1991年洪涝导致的灾害面积达453。5×10 hm ，受灾人口达90万人，总经济损失有340亿元[1]。在气候变暖的背景下，洪泽湖生态经济区年内降水量分布不均，大部分集中在5~9月季风活跃的时期。在汛期该地暴雨频繁，季节性洪涝发生频次很多。并且季风强度不稳定，这就决定了该地年降水量不稳定导致降水异数偏大，使得旱涝灾害容易发生。为了掌握洪泽湖生态经济区的旱涝变化规律，本论文主要评估该区域的早涝风险，研究其旱涝的发生频率，希望能够为该区域减少灾害导致的损失提供理论参考，以便更好的做好防灾减灾措施。