房价银行信贷与经济增长基于重庆房地产调控政策的研究
关键词 房价 信贷 重庆 经济增长 最小二乘法
毕业论文外文摘要
Title Prices bank credit and economic growth ----research-based real estate control policies in chongqing
Abstract
The real estate industry has become a pillar industry of the national economy. Prices, credit and economic growth close relationship between the three. Current academic research on the relationship between the three did not come to a unified conclusion. But the study of China's generally believed that the credit and economic growth has a significant impact on prices, housing prices and credit expansion and to promote economic growth. Many literature has proven credit and house prices have a significant economic interpretation of the role, this article focuses on the estimated coefficients to be determined, and therefore the least squares method is reasonable. In this paper, Chongqing February 2006 to October 2012 to implement monthly data before and after the property tax levy, by combing theory, the establishment of prices, credit, economic growth, property taxes regression model contains four variables and empirical analysis. The empirical results show that: the credit and economic growth of real estate prices has a role in promoting and promoting the role of the credit is more than economic growth, while Chongqing property tax levy on the steady housing prices have a certain role.
Keywords House prices The credit chongqing Economic growth OLS
目 录
1.绪论 1
1.1选题背景和意义 1
1.2相关概念界定 1
1.3重庆房地产调控政策简介 3
1.4文章结构 4
2.文献综述 5
2.1相关理论研究 5
2.2相关实证研究 5
3.实证研究设计 8
3.1模型 8
3.2样本与变量 8
3.3计算方法 9
4.实证结果 10
4.1描述性统计 10
4.2相关性分析 10
4.3初步回归分析 10
4.4异方差的检验 11
4.5自相关的检验 12
结论 13
致谢 14
参考文献 15
1 绪论
1.1 选题背景和意义
重庆自从直辖以来，各方面得到了飞速的发展。统计数据显示：1996年重庆GDP仅1315亿元，人均GDP为4574元，低于全国平均水平，发展还很落后。经过十多年的努力，2013年全市生产总值达到12657亿元，全市人均GDP为42976.88元,高于全国平均水平。重庆房地产业在直辖以后同样得到了迅猛的发展。作为西部唯一的直辖市，拥有国家优惠政策的支持，被广大投资者看好。另外，随着重庆城市化进程的加快，外来人口增加。这两个原因共同导致房价持续上涨。可是房价过高会带来的许多社会问题，容易产生房地产泡沫，甚至引发金融危机。因此，房价的高涨时刻受到政府和大众的关注。影响房价的因素很多，由于我国现阶段房地产金融市场体系尚不完善，房地产金融市场依然延续着商业银行信贷主导的格局。房地产金融市场过分依赖商业银行贷款资金供给和银行信贷资金占房地产企业资金来源比例较高，导致房地产市场受信贷政策变动影响巨大。2010年以来，为抑制房价过快上涨，政府出台了密集且严厉的紧缩性调控政策，希望通过一段时间的调整来充分释放房地产价格上涨过快及信贷投放过大带来的各种市场风险，但不少城市的房价上升势头并未得到有效遏制，并呈现明显的地区差异。本文基于2011年重庆房产税征收试点，选取信贷和经济增长作为影响因素，通过计量模型，结合重庆市的数据进行实证研究，分析房地产调控政策效果，对完善房地产市场调控相关政策提供理论依据。