货币供应量作为我国货币政策中介目标的有效性分析
关键词 货币供应量 传导机制 中介目标 实证分析
毕业论文外文摘要
Title A Research on Effectiveness of Money Policy as the intermediate target
Abstract
Based on the review of existing research results, this paper explains the general situation of monetary policy operation in China briefly.The testability, controllability and correlation of monetary policy have been studied and analyzed by combining qualitative and quantitative analysis at the same time. while money supply has some defect in statistics caliber, it is still good enough .Passive release of monetary base,unstable money multiplier and the declining velocity of money result in the decrease of controllability . And the paper make an empirical research with the quarterly data from 1996 to 2014,by using the unit root test, co-integration test, Granger causality test, pulse effects and variance decomposition. The results show that the money supply connects closely with the final goal . Overall, the monetary supply as the intermediary target of monetary policy is still effective now.
Keywords Money supply transmission mechanism intermediary target Empirical analysis
目 次
1 引言 1
2 文献综述 2
2.1 货币供应量作为中介目标无效 2
2.2 货币供应量作为中介目标仍然合理 3
3 中国货币政策运作概况 4
3.1 最终目标的选择及调整 … 4
3.2 中介目标的选择 4
3.3 我国货币政策传导机制 … 6
4 货币供应量作为货币政策中介目标的效果评价 7
4.1 货币供应量可测性分析 … 7
4.2 货币供应量可控性分析 … 7
4.3 货币供应量与最终目标相关性分析 10
结论 …19
致谢 …20
参考文献21
附录A 各变量原始数据…22
附录B 调整后数据…24
图4.1 1996-2013货币乘数变化趋势 … 9
图4.2 1996-2013货币流通速度变化趋势 …10
图4.3 LNM1SA、LNGDPSA、LNCPISA、LNR的VAR模型中AR根 13
图4.4 LNM2SA、LNGDPSA、LNCPISA、LNR的VAR模型中AR根 13
图4.5 M1冲击对GDP和CPI的影响 …16
图4.6 M2冲击对GDP和CPI的影响 …16
图4.7 方差分解图 …17
表4.1 1996--2014年M2增长目标值与实际值对比 …8
表4.2 序列统计表… 11
表4.3 ADF单位根检验——原序列 … 11
表4.4 ADF单位根检验——一阶差分 12
表4.5 LNM1SA、LNGDPSA、LNCPISA、LNR的VAR滞后阶数 12
表4.6 LNM2SA、LNGDPSA、LNCPISA、LNR的VAR滞后阶数 13
表4.7 LNM1SA、LNGDPSA、LNCPISA、LNR的Johansen协整检验结果 14