环同济科技园区周边商品住宅价格走势探析
毕业论文关键词： 同济科技园区；商品住宅；商品住宅价格；趋势平均移动法
Analysis of commodity residential house price trend around Tongji University Sci-Tech Park
Abstract：Shanghai Tongji University Sci-Tech Park , the one and only to its regional position and strategic position, has become the future development of Shanghai City, the important standing aid, development of Tongji university Sci-Tech park , fast will greatly promote the development of Shanghai city. Residential commodity price around Tongji university Sci-Tech park has been basically at a high level and obvious growth trend. This paper takes Shanghai commodity residential house around Tongji university Sci-Tech park as an example, studies the main factors influencing the commodity residential house prices in China and the influence of various factors on the price range, trend moving average method is used to quantitatively predict commodity residential house price movements.Finally, according to the analysis of this article, put forward reasonable suggestions for the healthy development of China's commodity housing market.
KeyWords： Tongji University Sci-Tech Park ；housing price；trend moving average method
1 绪论 1
1.1 选题背景 1
1.2 选题意义 1
1.3 国内外研究现状 1
1.4 研究思路与方法 2
2 商品住宅价格 3
2.1 商品住宅价格的概念 3
2.2 商品房价格构成： 3
3 商品住宅价格的影响因素 5
3.1 商品住宅的自身与外部影响因素 5
3.2 商品住宅需求与供给影响因素 6
4上海市房地产现状 8
4.1房地产开发投资 8
4.2 住宅商品房供求比及成交均价 9
5多因素综合评价我国商品住宅价格走势预测 11
5.1 经济因素 11
5.1.1 国内生产总值 11
5.1.2 城镇家庭人均可支配收入 12
5.1.3 人口 12
5.1.4 城镇居民家庭的人均居住面积 12
5.1.5 居民的消费价格指数 12
5.1.6 居民的心理预期 13
5.1.7 就业状况 13
5.2 土地为核心的影响因素 13
5.2.1 商品住宅的投资增幅 13
5.2.2 土地的价格与开发的面积 13
5.2.3 竣工房屋的造价 13
5.2.4 施工的面积的增幅 14
5.2.5 竣工的面积的上升 14
5.2.6 待售的商品房的面积 14
5.3 金融因素的各个指标 14
5.4 国际经济形势因素 14
5.4.1 汇率 14
5.4.2 热钱的流入 14
5.5 政策的因素 15
5.6 其他的因素 15
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