高房价背景下的我国城乡居民消费行为研究
毕业论文关键词：高房价； 消费行为； 挤出效应； 财富效应
Abstract
As the rapid development of economic and urbanization, real estate market has experienced an extraordinary grow, which plays a supporting role in economic development. Chinese government has carried out a series of policy to control the house price since 2004,but it still stands firm after struggling for 10 years, which makes a tremendous gap with resident income. The paper combined with the performance of house price under the macro-control of government and the high price of the residents' consumption status, does a theoretical analysis with the relationship between house price and consumption. Based on data selected from 31 provinces of mainland and 12provinces from the east China between 2007 and 2012, my thesis takes per capital annual consumption expenditure as the dependent variable, house price of province, personal average disposable income of urban and rural residents and inflation rate as independent variable. This paper empirically investigates the impact of house price,income and inflation rate on the consumption expenditure using panel data for OLS regression analysis. Finally, aims at high house price for the status, I offer some suggestions for the government and residents.
Key words： High house price ; Consuming behavior; Crowding out effect; Wealth effect
目 录
摘 要Ⅰ
AbstractⅡ
一、引言1
（一）文献综述1
（二）研究框架2
二、多次宏观调控下的房价 3
（一）政策面3
（二）历年来房价与居民收入变动4
（三）居民在高房价下的消费现状5
（四）我国房地产行业发展现状6
三、理论分析8
（一）消费者预期促使房价上升8
（二）高房价是建立在居民的投资消费上9
（三）中国的经济增长依赖房地产行业9
（四）高房价损害居民的长期福利9
四、全国各地区的居民消费多元回归分析13
（一）变量13
（二）理论模型14
（三）模型设定14
（四）对居民消费水平与房价进行回归分析15
（五）结果分析 18
五、政策建议 19
（一）鼓励投资渠道多元化 19
（二）增加住房供给，加强保障房建设 19
（三）改变居民的住房消费观念 19
六、结论 20
附 录 21
注 释 26
参考文献 26
高房价背景下的我国城乡居民消费行为研究
近年来，我国的经济得以迅速发展，房地产行业做出巨大的贡献。房价的上涨尺度体现在财富效应与挤出效应之间的博弈程度，由此探究高房价与我国城乡居民消费的关系具有深刻的现实意义。
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