摘要:随着经济的不断发展，市场需求的变化更加复杂，对于制造型企业，需求预测作为生产计划的前提在企业生产系统中占用重要地位，而生产计划又是保证企业生产过程的有序、高效进行的必要条件。本文以思源电气股份有限公司的屏柜生产为基础，通过现场调研发现公司存在需求预测不准、生产计划改动频繁、生产能力不明确和订单及时交付率低的问题，而产生问题的原因是缺乏准确的需求预测模型，生产计划制定不标准，紧急订单生产周期长。因此，综合运用统计分析法、指数平滑法、计划编制法、关键路线法，并结合SPSS和CCProject软件，以提高生产系统的效率为目标，从需求预测、主生产计划、物料需求计划、能力需求计划和紧急订单的时间资源优化几个方面进行了研究。研究结果表明，合适的需求预测模型能够提高需求预测准确度、保证生产计划的执行和提高了交付及时率，总体来说提高了公司生产系统的效率。

关键词：ETO；需求预测；主生产计划；物料需求计划

Research on Demand Forecast and Production Planning of SiyuanCompany 's Transformer cabinet

Abstract:With the continuous development of the economy, the market demand changes more complex, for manufacturing enterprises, demand forecast as a prerequisite for production planning in the enterprise production system occupies an important position, and production planning is to ensure that the production process of orderly and efficient The necessary conditions. Based on the production of the screen cabinet of Siyuan Electric Co., Ltd., this paper finds that the company has the problem that the demand forecast is not allowed, the production plan is changed frequently, the production capacity is not clear and the order delivery rate is low, and the problem is the lack of Accurate demand forecasting model, production plan development is not standard, emergency order production cycle is long. Therefore, the comprehensive use of statistical analysis, exponential smoothing, planning method, the key route method, combined with SPSS and CCProject software to improve the efficiency of the production system as the goal, from the demand forecast, the main production plan, material demand planning, rough capacity Planning and emergency order time resources optimization aspects of several aspects of the study. The results show that the demand forecasting model can improve the accuracy of forecasting, ensure the implementation of production plan and improve the delivery rate, and improve the efficiency of the production system.

Key words: ETO; demand forecast; main production plan; Material Requirement Planing

目录

1绪论 1

1.1问题提出的背景及意义 1

1.2相关问题的研究与应用动态 2

1.3研究内容与技术路线 3

2需求预测和生产计划相关理论基础 4

2.1需求预测思想和方法 4

2.2生产计划流程与要求 5

2.3生产类型特征 7

3思源公司屏柜生产需求预测及生产计划现状分析 9

3.1思源弘瑞屏柜工艺流程 9

3.2需求预测现状及问题分析 12

3.3生产计划现状及问题分析 16

4需求预测分析与计算 19

4.1需求预测的改进思路 19

4.2需求预测定量分析方法的确定与计算