摘要：随着科技的不断进步，传统的报刊、广播电视等逐渐被互联网、大数据取代。自媒体也打破了被动接受信息的局面。民众也可以作为“媒体”发声，这一媒介生态环境的改变也使得舆论形成了新的格局。本文通过对微博舆情的分布形态、生成机制和传播过程的研究，重点分析在微博这个零门槛的平台内，当民众作为“媒体”时对突发事件舆论场产生的影响，以及突发事件的微博舆论在引导过程中出现的问题。在此基础上，分析和概括微博的发展给舆论引导带来的新挑战，并以长江沉船事件为例，利用时间序列分析方法分析事件的舆情发展进程，并提出突发事件舆情传播时出现的负面影响及处理建议。我国社会民主化进程的不断推进，言论自由度不断开放，积极正面的言论可以营造良好的社会风气，反之，负面言论和虚假信息会影响社会安定。经过分析找到如何能够避免在舆情传播中产生舆情危机，这是本文所研究的意义。

关键词：自媒体；微博；微博舆论；信息扩散

Research on information diffusion and public opinion in micro-blog

Abstract：With the continuous progress of science and technology, the traditional newspapers, radio and television, and so gradually by the Internet, large data to replace. Since the media also broke the passive acceptance of information situation. People can also be as "media" sound, the media changes in  the ecological environment also makes public opinion to form a new pattern. In this paper, through the study of the distribution of microblogging public opinion, the mechanism of formation and the process of communication, we focus on analyzing the influence of the public as a "media" on the micro-blog, Event microblogging public opinion in the process of guiding the problems. On the basis of this, the author analyzes and summarizes the new challenges brought by the development of microblogging to public opinion guidance, and takes the Yangtze River shipwreck as an example, analyzes the event of public opinion development by time series analysis, and puts forward the emergence of public opinion The negative impact and processing recommendations. China's social democratization process continues to advance, freedom of speech is open, positive and positive remarks can create a good social atmosphere, on the contrary, negative speech and false information will affect social stability. After analysis to find out how to avoid the public opinion in the spread of public opinion crisis, which is the significance of this study.

Keywords: From the media; microblogging; microblogging public opinion; information diffusion;

目录

0引言...1

1微博网络舆情概述2

1.1微博简介2

1.1.1微博的建立与发展...2

1.1.2微博的传播特点.2

1.2网络舆情4

1.2.1网络舆情的内涵.4

1.2.2微博舆情的特有特征.4

1.3微博舆情的生成机制..5

1.4突发事件中的微博舆情的分布形态..7

1.5突发事件中微博舆情传播过程..7

2针对突发事件微博舆论引导的案例分析...10

2.1长江沉船事件...10

2.1.1时间影响下的微博传播效果..10

2.1.2舆论热度的地域分布11

2.1.3效果性质维度下的传播效果..11

2.2时间序列分析13

2.2.1时间序列方法简介..13

2.2.2长江沉船事件数据处理与统计图形14

2.2.3数据建模..15

2.2.4模型分析：15

3突发事件中舆情传播的注意事项及建议...17

3.1虚假信息的传播17

3.2恶意揣测的负面情绪18

3.3“意见领袖”诱导舆情...18

结论20

致谢21

参考文献.22